Lower cotton prices only to protect the cotton farmers to abandon cotton from short-term or harder to improve

The decline in cotton prices is only a guarantee for cotton farmers to abandon cotton from the grain Cotton prices have continued to decline recently, and cotton farmers in major cotton producing areas such as Xinjiang and Shandong are generally reluctant to sell. Many farmers believe that this year's cotton can only protect capital. Due to the fact that the income from cotton cultivation has been consistently lower than that of seed grain in recent years, many cotton farmers in Shandong and other places have already converted the grain suitable for growing grain into grain. Experts in the industry believe that due to factors such as supply oversupply and depressed downstream demand, cotton prices are unlikely to improve in the short term. In the long run, it is necessary to be alert to the cyclical rebound in prices that cotton farmers can abolish.

Lower cotton prices Farmers can only guarantee the preservation of 10 mu of cotton this year by cotton farmers Mamiti Cahal of Hailou Township, Shaya County, Xinjiang, which is currently harvested by nearly half. Although the harvest was good and the quality was good, it did not please him. "Last year, the average purchase price of cotton reached 14 yuan per kilogram. If it does not reach 9 yuan this year, let alone increase income, it is difficult to protect the cost," he said.

This year, the price of cotton has started to decline from the beginning of the year, and the overall price of lint cotton has fallen from more than 30,000 yuan per ton at the beginning of the year to the current 19,000 yuan.

This reporter learned that the current purchase price of cotton in southern Xinjiang is generally around 8.7 yuan per kilogram, and according to the state announced the temporary storage and storage price of 19,800 yuan per ton, about 8.54 yuan per kilogram of cotton. Although the current price of cotton is still higher than the national collection and storage price, many farmers have said that such prices are basically no gain.

"This year, the total cotton planted in the country is 15,000 yuan. According to this year's output and the current purchase price, all the cotton in the field is just enough to pay off. There is not much surplus, and this year's income mainly depends on the jujube planted in the cotton field. Mamiti Kahal said.

In another province of Shandong Province, a thousand miles away, many farmers are disappointed with the “disappointment” of cotton prices. Jin Minghai, a cotton farmer in Jinhaozhuang Township, Linqing City, Shandong Province, said that he wanted to make more grain last year. However, the price of cotton is not bad. There are many types of cotton. I didn't expect this year to fall back to this level, and basically done it again.

It is precisely because of the price issue that although Xinjiang Cotton has been undergoing acquisitions until now, it has been more than a month, but the progress of the acquisition is still slow. In the face of unsatisfied cotton prices, most farmers take a wait-and-see attitude, and many buyers are worried that the market will continue to fall and they will not dare to buy in large quantities.

Some farmers want to "abate cotton from grain"

During an interview with reporters, some farmers said that in recent years, the price of cotton has fluctuated significantly, the risk of growing cotton has become greater, and the overall income has been relatively low. In areas where conditions are suitable, cotton farmers have decided to abandon their cotton crops and switch to food crops such as wheat and corn.

“A kind of cotton can only be planted for one season, and the kind of wheat can be replanted next year. After two seasons, how can we get a gross income of more than 2000 yuan per acre? In the past few years, the cotton is worse than the kind of grain.” Jin Minghai said. Now, looking for people to pick up cotton for more than one yuan per kilogram and find no one. It would be better to plant grain and go out to work.

The calculation of the Xinjiang Agriculture and Economics Department in Shaya County also shows that the cost of planting one acre of cotton this year has exceeded 1,000 yuan, which does not include the labor cost of the farmers themselves, the food and accommodation costs of the employees, and the cost of picking cotton. In addition, the rapid rise in the price of agricultural resources has also reduced the income of many farmers.

Shandong Dezhou City is a major cotton planting city in Shandong. In recent years, the cotton planting area is about 160 million mu. Driven by the good market in 2010, the planting area increased to 1.7 million mu in the past year. However, the reporter recently found that in Xiajin and other places in Dezhou City, some farmers have started to pull cotton and broadcast wheat.

Yu Yuping, the station director of the Xiajin County Bureau of Agriculture Plant Protection, said that farmers are now very sensitive to prices. When cotton prices fell in previous years, many food-producing areas were planted with food. Only those saline-alkali lands and sandy lands had to continue to grow cotton. If the long-term cotton yield is less than grain, it will be more common to discard cotton.

Tang Yujing, manager of a cotton acquisition company in Linqing, Shandong Province, said that the country's 19800 yuan per ton of storage and storage price is a standard grade cotton, but the current cotton quality generally fails to meet this requirement. Recently, a large-scale cotton enterprise in Shandong province has cut its prices three times in a row. This is why the national collection and storage price is relatively small for many cotton farmers with poor cotton quality.

Short-term trend or difficult to improve Some industry sources and experts said that this year's cotton price decline, both the impact of global cotton supply and demand reversal and other factors, there are still reasons for downstream demand is still sluggish, the short-term price is difficult to have a significant rebound, but in the country Under the influence of purchasing and storage policies at the end, cotton prices will not drop substantially.

The latest global cotton supply and demand forecast released by the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) in mid-October showed that global cotton production in 2011/2012 was increased by 270,000 tons to 27.04 million tons compared to September, while consumption was reduced by 180,000 tons to 24.9 million tons. The output was greater than the 2.14 million tons consumed, which was a significant improvement compared to the tight balance caused by the reduction in production last year.

In terms of downstream demand, although the price of cotton yarn was relatively stable in recent days, the total amount of 40 carded yarns was maintained at around 29,000 yuan per ton. However, the start-up conditions of the mills are still not good. Ma Junkai, deputy secretary-general of the Dezhou Cotton Association, said that since the end of August, cotton prices have improved and the sales of cotton yarn have improved. The suspended production companies have resumed work in succession, but they are still in a micro-deficient state. After some mills resumed their jobs, it was difficult to recruit workers even if they raised wages. The overall operating rate was only 60% to 70%.

Ren Quanyuan, general manager of Jinan Yuanshou Knitting Co., Ltd., said that the current international market conditions are still not good, exports have not yet recovered, the domestic market is difficult to open, coupled with the impact of factors such as rising labor costs, the difficulties faced by textile companies is difficult to reverse.

Some industry sources believe that the high price of cotton last year caused some companies to shift raw materials to chemical fiber raw materials, which to a certain extent affected the demand for cotton. In addition, with the increase in the value of *** and the increase in labor costs in China, the cost advantages in Vietnam and India have begun to appear, weakening the competitiveness of Chinese companies.

For the market outlook for cotton, Zhang Yanjie, an analyst at Zhuo Chuang, said that global cotton supply and demand is relatively abundant, and the actual downstream demand is still difficult to start quickly in the short term when the global economy is more volatile. With the successive listing of new cotton, there was no substantial improvement in the actual downstream demand. The cotton yarn market showed a weak consolidation. Ma Junkai believes that under the influence of the state's collection and storage of "holding the bottom", this year's cotton price will fluctuate within the range of 19,000 yuan to 25,000 yuan per ton.

Some experts said that China’s cotton imports account for nearly one-third of total demand. If cotton prices continue to weaken, the interests of cotton farmers will be damaged, which will likely cause a decline in planting area, which will affect the decline in supply and prices will rise again. It is tantamount to worse for the fragile China's cotton spinning industry.

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