Orders in Europe and the United States dropped suddenly and it is expected that exports will fall sharply in August.

When the market is still immersed in the joy of July's sharp rise in exports, the risk has quietly reached. The sudden drop in export orders of many enterprises in the eastern coast means that the negative impact of the economic downturn in Europe and the United States begins to show, and exports in the future are not optimistic.

A sudden drop in export orders Dongguan is a famous export manufacturing center in Guangdong Province and even in China. In 2010, the total import and export volume was US$121.33 billion, and its total exports accounted for approximately 4.4% of the country's total. However, a recent research conducted by Huatai United Dongguan in Dongguan shows that export orders have been declining significantly since June and July. Comprehensive orders for 300 companies fell by 15%-20% year-on-year in August, and the average profit margin has dropped from 5.7% in the previous year to the nearest 3.5%.

He Qingming, a macro analyst at Ping An Securities, told reporters that their recent survey of export companies in Zhejiang also found that the growth rate of import and export trade in Zhejiang Province in the first half of the year showed a declining trend. The cumulative year-on-year growth in exports of electromechanical products was most noticeable. Since Zhejiang's private enterprises and foreign-funded enterprises accounted for more than 80% of the total exports, of which private enterprises accounted for 53.1% of exports, the current rapid decline in exports has hit the small and medium-sized private enterprises.

When an electronic camera company in Dongguan was jointly researched by China and Thailand, the company’s products were popular consumer products in the United States. In June, it was obvious that the orders were down, and customers cancelled some orders. At the same time, some of the upstream companies in the near future are reminding customers that they can place orders, so they feel that the orders of the upstream companies are not very optimistic.

Another shredder company in Dongguan, 50% of products sold to Europe, 40% sold to the United States. Judging from the orders received during the August-September period this year, the situation is not optimistic. It is 20%-30% lower than usual. The company said that orders for the March-April period were still good, but in June-July, it felt that the sales did not meet expectations, because the customer suddenly did not purchase.

Demand in European and U.S. Significantly Reduced According to hundreds of export companies surveyed by China and Thailand, the reduction in European and American orders is currently a major challenge for exporters: First, foreign demand has declined, and foreign orders have increased more in the first half of the year. Foreign companies tend to digest existing Inventory then consider increasing orders. Second, foreign parties have taken the initiative to shorten the inventory cycle. For example, Wal-Mart's orders have been adjusted from 8 months to 6 months and multi-batch and small-batch purchases have been adopted. Third, some companies are afraid to take orders. Enterprises adopt conservative business strategies under the conditions of rising costs and uncertain prospects.

He Qingming stated that the operating environment of domestic export enterprises is not good at all, such as the rapid increase in labor costs, the serious inflation situation, the “electricity shortage”, the appreciation of ***, and the difficulties in smashing, all of which have caused difficulties for medium and small export enterprises. At this time, the overseas market was sluggish, and the demand for major export destinations such as Europe and the United States dropped drastically, making exporters worse.

Exports will again fall again. "The sharp increase in exports in July was due to the lag in new orders. Under such circumstances, it is clearly impossible for exports to grow again." Dai Lei, chief researcher at AVIC Securities, said that financial restructuring in developed countries It is advancing, and government-led demand has receded. The unemployment rate continues to be high, and consumer spending will also be reduced. The adjustment of the European and American economies is inevitable. Exports are expected to fall sharply to 15% in August, and the downward trend in exports in the second half of the year will remain unchanged.

Great Wall Securities believes that the sharp rise in exports in July was mainly due to the sharp increase in exports to Japan, but the United States and the EU accounted for a larger proportion of China’s exports, and will have a significant impact on China’s exports in the future. The current decline in the US consumer confidence index will worsen the already low GDP growth. The failure of the euro zone's growth engine in Germany will make it difficult for the euro zone to recover. Therefore, the higher export growth rate in July will be difficult to maintain. It is estimated that the annual growth rate of China's exports will fall back to about 18%.

Deng Eryong, a strategic analyst at Changjiang Securities, said that the downside risk of the US economy is that consumer demand is low due to sluggish consumer confidence. This sluggish situation may have to remain for 5-6 months. In the euro area, the rapid economic growth driven by large-scale investment in the previous period has started to decline this month, and other countries are still unable to extricate themselves from the quagmire of the debt crisis. Therefore, the economy of the euro zone will not be satisfactory in the second half of the year. . In the second half of the year, China's exports are not optimistic. (Author: Li Yuxin)