Expert point of view: multiple factors help boost the price of chemical fiber raw materials

Recently, the price of chemical fiber raw materials has risen rapidly. The domestic PTA spot price has increased from the low of 9,170 yuan/ton in early December 2010 to the current 11,780 yuan/ton, an increase of 2610 yuan, or an increase of 28.46%; the price of MEG has been from 2010 In late November, the price of 7,900 yuan / ton rose to the current 9,950 yuan / ton, an increase of 2050 yuan, an increase of 25.95%.

PTA is the most important raw material for production of polyester polyester. The rapid increase in its price has boosted the production cost of polyester polyester, which has also boosted the price of polyester filaments and staple fibers. Due to changes in the supply and demand relationship in the market, sometimes the price of polyester staple fiber in the short term is even greater than the PTA. Therefore, the prices of polyester filaments and polyester staple fibers have recently risen, but the overall increase has been smaller than PTA. The price of polyester staple fiber rose from 12,100 yuan/ton on December 21, 2010 to 14,500 yuan/ton now, an increase of 2,400 yuan or nearly 19.86%; the price trend of polyester POY basically kept pace with staple fiber, increasing It is also about 20%.

Multiple factors lead to price increase 1. Global liquidity excess is an important reason for the rise in commodity prices The recent increase in domestic polyester raw material prices, the most important reason is the global excess liquidity. During the financial crisis in 2008, many countries used the increase in money supply as the main economic stimulus measure, resulting in the current global excess liquidity. When most countries have begun to switch to a stable monetary policy, the United States, which has the greatest impact on the global economy, is still increasing its money supply in quantitative easing. This has caused a serious surplus of the US dollar's liquidity on a global scale, and speculation has become prevalent. The ** market is the main battlefield of capital speculation. The rapid increase of domestic and international cotton prices has become the main driving force for the increase in the prices of cotton, chemical fiber and raw materials in the fourth quarter of last year and January-February this year.

The price of domestic cotton ** main contract reached a new high of 33,600 yuan/ton on November 10 last year and quickly fell to 24,180 yuan/ton on January 29, a drop of 28%; Rising market, the last trading day before the Spring Festival (February 1) hit a record high since the listing, the main 1109 contract closed at 33,725 yuan / ton, higher than the highest price on November 10 last year, 125 yuan / ton; since last year 11 On the 29th of the month, the increase has reached 39.5%. On the first trading day after the holiday, the main contract price of 1109 on February 9 opened higher at 34,000 yuan/ton, but it closed at 33,180 yuan/ton on the latest session, and once again reached a new high on the 11th, breaking the 34,000 yuan threshold. 34,050 yuan / ton, recently maintained a high level of oscillation finishing trend.

With the rapid development of economic globalization, the interaction between the Chinese economy and the world economy has become more apparent, and the linkage between the domestic and foreign markets and the spot market has also increased significantly. The sharp increase in the price of domestic cotton ** this round has a very strong passivity, mainly driven by the sharp rise in international cotton prices, and the performance of cotton in New York was even stronger during the same period. On Nov. 9, 2010, the price of New Mexico's main contract reached a record high of 151.23 cents per pound. It then quickly declined and fell to 113.09 cents on November 23, 2010. After a one-month consolidation, the price was again high. There was a rapid rise and it rose to 161.83 cents on January 25. It has exceeded the November 2010 high of 10 cents or more. This round has risen as high as 43.1%; it has continued to oscillate. On February 10th, the main US cotton contract in March was able to close out 700 daily limit plates after expansion. It eventually closed at 187.58 cents and reached 192.63 cents intraday. However, Zhengzhou Futures Cotton 11th contract is only slightly up, in which the main 1109 contract rose 145 points to close at 33,795 yuan, K line left three consecutive Lianyin, volume, open interest have increased slightly, the market disagreements increased (details see picture 1).

The consistent performance of the price increase of the main raw material for textiles in this round was very obvious. For the whole year of 2010, the price of cotton in New York increased by 86.38%, and the price of cotton in Zhengzhou increased by 75.32%. From early September to early November 2010, it was the rapid increase in the price of cotton in the United States that drove up the price of Zhengzhou futures cotton. The current round of upward performance in early December was even more pronounced. The increase in US cotton was far greater than Zheng’s. Cotton gains.

2. Domestic excess liquidity and less investment channels have led to a large amount of funds entering the ** market. In response to the financial crisis, China implemented loose monetary policies and aggressive fiscal policies from 2009 to 2010, resulting in excess currency in the past two years. Printed and printed, although it has begun to shrink rapidly since the end of 2010, the actual effect of shrinking will take some time to be reflected.

At the same time, since the performance of the domestic real estate market has been relatively stable since 2010, there has been a certain crowding-out effect on investment capital; the long-term depressed stock market also shows that it is not an ideal place for capital investment. In the case of excess liquidity in the international market, the trend of the international commodity market is relatively strong, and the trend of many domestic brands is strongly associated with the international market, making it an ideal gathering place for domestic excess liquidity. This has caused a significant increase in many varieties of the domestic market since the fourth quarter of last year. For example, in the 30 days from October 7th to November 7th, 2010, the Zheng Sugar ** main contract increased by 30.1%; the Shanghai Zinc ** main contract increased by more than 20%; from November 29 to December 31 In more than 30 days, the LME copper main contract increased by 17.68%; the Shanghai copper main contract rose by 17.76%, and continued to be implemented after surpassing the 70,000 yuan/ton mark on December 30. This year, it reached a record high of 71,160 yuan on January 4 of this year. T, then basically oscillated between 70,000 and 71,000 yuan, and after the Spring Festival, there was a rapid increase. The closing price of Hujiao last year reached 52.09%, of which only the 12-day main contract from October 29 to November 10 rose by 22.95%; this year, it exceeded the 40,000-yuan integer mark on February 1 and continued after the holiday. Strong, has been operating in more than 40,000 yuan; on February 9 rose 1.02%, closing on the 10th to hit a new high of 41,770 yuan / ton; in recent days the high has been oscillating.

Figure 2 shows that the recent price increases of PTA and cotton ** are relatively large, and the trends of the two are basically the same. On January 24, Zhengzhou PTA experienced a rapid daily limit, and cotton rose by 3.47%. However, New York crude oil on the day closed at US$87.87 per barrel, down by 1.4%. On the 25th, Zhengzhou PTA and cotton dropped by 2.39% and 1.88%, respectively. On the 26th, they rebounded by 1.34% and 0.13% respectively. After the Spring Festival, the prices of the two prices have basically kept the same pace, basically maintaining a high level of oscillation and rising slightly. Obviously, it can be seen that the rapid increase in the prices of these two PTA** since October 2010 has been significantly driven by the rapid increase in the price of cotton in Zhengzhou. The increase in the price of PTA** is significantly lower than that of Zhengzhou Cotton. The increase was more pronounced in the most recent one.

3. Relatively strong market demand is still the basic factor for this round of price increase of chemical fiber and its raw materials. Since the second half of 2009, the textile and chemical fiber industry has experienced rapid recovery growth after the financial crisis. The market is operating well and the economic benefits are very good. Among them, the output of chemical fiber increased by 14%, and the output of major varieties in several major industries downstream of chemical fiber saw rapid growth. For example, the yarn production in 2010 increased by 13.74%, of which the mixed yarn increased by 13.38%, the synthetic fiber yarn increased by 22.88%, and the output of chemical fiber fabric increased by 15.11%. %, the production of cord fabrics increased by 22.35%, and the output of nonwoven fabrics increased by 24.23%.

Driven by the recovery of demand from the market after the financial crisis, prices of chemical fiber products and raw materials also rose rapidly. At the same time, the good economic benefits of the industry in 2010 also brought about a rapid increase in investment. By the end of 2010, orders for spinning machines from several domestic and foreign manufacturers of chemical fiber equipment had basically been placed at the end of 2014. This good demand for the industry's future is also expected to push up the current price of raw materials, one of the important factors.

Chemical fiber companies failed to make profits in the recent rise in domestic chemical fiber prices, and did not bring much benefit to domestic chemical fiber companies. This round of market prices is entirely a cost-driven market, raw material prices rose significantly more than chemical fiber products rose. At the same time as the price of chemical fiber went up, the profits of chemical fiber companies shrank relatively quickly, and some even suffered losses. From the perspective of the processing gross profit of polyester staple fiber and polyester POY in Figure 3, according to current prices, the recent increase in the prices of major raw materials has caused some polyester manufacturing companies to close to breakeven, and individual companies have suffered losses. The gross profits of polyester raw materials PX and PTA are very rich. From the last two months, the PX gross profit space has rapidly enlarged, and it is now up to 480 US dollars/ton; the PTA gross margin is basically stable at 1000. Yuan/ton.

The shrinking of gross profit of chemical fiber companies is due to the fact that the prices of raw materials and chemical fiber, as well as weaving and garments, have basically remained at a high level. The ability of chemical fiber to further transfer the rising cost of raw materials to the downstream has been greatly reduced; on the other hand, At the end of each year, the textile companies are mostly holiday holidays, and the end of each year is basically a time when the traditional market is relatively sluggish. The demand for the chemical fiber downstream market is not high, and the entire industry chain is also weak in its ability to absorb rising costs. Chemical fiber companies, especially polyester companies, are large-scale complete sets of chemical plants, and they are not suitable for short-term production stoppages or frequent operations due to the high production cost.

Therefore, before and after the Spring Festival each year, domestic chemical fiber markets have large seasonal changes. Most of them show that the downstream demand is not buoyant, the market is relatively low, the business efficiency is not good, the operation quality is poor, and so on. This is not a normal market. Operating status. Generally speaking, after the Spring Festival holiday, most textile companies resumed their operations and remained stable for a period of time. At this time, market changes can explain the trend changes in the entire market and the operation of the industry.

Outlook outlook 1. Global liquidity surplus and inflation expectation will cause the high prices of cotton and chemical fiber materials to fluctuate the prices of upstream raw materials such as PTA and MEG, which are directly affected by the trend of crude oil and international bulk commodities. Under the background of continued depreciation of the U.S. dollar and continued liquidity in the international market, upstream raw materials such as PTA and MEG may be operating at higher prices for a long period of time, and there is a high possibility of even new highs. Cotton ** and spot prices will also continue to maintain a high level of oscillating momentum, and there will be more staged speculation, and the possibility of new highs is also very high. This also provides strong support for the high-level operation or oscillating sorting of chemical fiber and raw material prices.

2. The price center of chemical fiber products will appear to be significantly higher. The long-term high price of raw materials such as PTA will increase the production cost of chemical fiber. The continuous increase of cotton prices and the high level of operation and the rapid growth of downstream textile products are all the reasons for the price of chemical fiber. Going higher provides the market foundation. At present, the spot price of Grade 3 cotton has been between 29,000 and 30,000 yuan, which is already twice the price of polyester staple fiber and 3,000 yuan more than that of viscose staple fiber. If cotton can maintain its current high operating status, it is expected that the focus of the prices of major chemical fiber products will increase significantly in the future.

3. Affected by the relationship between supply and demand, chemical fiber companies may need to absorb most of the rising cost pressures. Long-term high prices for raw material prices such as PTA increase the cost of chemical fiber production, and the continued rise in cotton prices and high levels of operation and the rapid growth in downstream textile demand The market base has been provided for the rise of chemical fiber prices, and it is expected that in the future, the price center of major chemical fiber products will also appear to move up sharply. However, due to the rapid increase in domestic polyester polyester production capacity in recent years, there has been a certain surplus in the domestic polyester polyester market supply, and the market competition is fierce. Therefore, under the circumstances that the prices of upstream raw materials have risen and production costs have increased, the pressures for rising prices of polyesters and polyesters have been enormous. However, as the affordability of the downstream industries has been limited, polyester polyester production enterprises can only add a small part of the additional costs. To pass on, most of them rely on the internal business to digest.

4. The meager profits and losses of polyester polyester enterprises and the fall in crude oil prices will, to some extent, restrict the upward momentum of raw material prices. Recently, there are also many PTA plants in China that will be put into production. At the same time, the cost pressures of polyester polyester production enterprises are also It will affect the market's demand for PTA and MEG, making it difficult for PTA and MEG prices to continue to rise. At the same time, the price of crude oil in the international market has risen rapidly before the beginning of the Spring Festival and has fallen before the Spring Festival. The recent WTI crude oil price is still consolidating around US$90. This will also have a greater negative impact on the raw material market upstream of polyester.

5. The domestic PTA** market is not yet mature. Market speculation and other speculative forces are relatively large. It has certain adverse effects on the operation of the chemical fiber industry. Before the PTA** market, the domestic PTA market was mainly affected by the sharp fluctuations in crude oil prices and the industry supply and demand fundamentals. The impact of changes, etc., also frequently fluctuate greatly, which has a great impact on the production and operation of polyester polyester enterprises. One of the most important purposes of promoting the listing of PTA** contracts was to provide companies with a tool to circumvent market risks and reduce the large fluctuations in the domestic PTA market.

Since the PTA** contract was listed more than three years ago, the market has gradually developed and its financial attributes, such as price discovery, have played well. However, the market is not yet mature. The speculative power is far greater than the hedging and other risk-avoiding forces, resulting in a market. Frequent fluctuations, sometimes encouraging growth, are also more pronounced. This has a certain or greater adverse effect on the normal operation of polyester polyester enterprises.

In the past two years, most polyester polyester enterprises have been very concerned about PTA**, and some companies have begun to participate in PTA** transactions, mainly for hedging and avoiding business risks. However, there are also individual companies that have participated in PTA ** speculation. In 2008, some companies also suffered heavy losses. The lessons of these blood also remind us that the current PTA** market has obvious or stronger financial attributes, and the influencing factors have already exceeded the relatively simple industry fundamentals. Therefore, polyester polyester enterprises need to focus on other factors besides paying attention to the fundamentals of the industry when they participate in the ** market, such as changes in the macroeconomic environment, monetary policy, and industrial policies, obvious financial attributes of the market, and inter-species mutuality. Impact and so on.

Therefore, we recommend that chemical fiber companies should prudently participate in PTA** transactions, focus on hedging and risk evasion, and try not to participate in **market speculation. At the same time, it is necessary to pay attention to take advantage of the fact that the limited industrial capital of the industry has a great market risk when it competes with a large amount of financial capital in the society.

In view of the current high cotton prices and high raw material prices, our chemical fiber industry must also take measures to actively respond. On the one hand, speed up the development of the raw material industry and increase the operating rate. In particular, to speed up the industrial development of chemical fiber main raw materials such as PX, PTA, and MEG, and at the same time increase the operating rate of raw materials and polyester polyester enterprises, increase the market supply capacity as soon as possible, and partially ease the pressure of rising product prices. On the other hand, accelerate the development of alternative products for cotton. In the past two years, the industry has been accelerating the development of alternatives to cotton.

In 2010, the China Academy of Textile Science has undertaken the major science and technology support project of the Ministry of Science and Technology--the development of super-imitation cotton synthetic fiber and its textile industrialization technology. It is planned to establish or renovate four super-imitation cotton polyester fiber spinning demonstration lines, two polyester continuous polymerization demonstration lines, one PTA process strengthening demonstration line, eight textile, dyeing and finishing, and fabric production demonstration lines. Through the demonstration and promotion of technological achievements, the industrialization of ultra-imitation cotton polyester fibers and their products will be promoted. It is expected that satisfactory results will be achieved within the next 2 to 3 years.